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Kondratieff Long Wave Theory

by John on September 18th, 2008 // Filed Under » Trading Q&A

I was asked the other day:

What is your take on the Kondratieff Long Wave Theory?  Would you say we are in the Winter phase?

I’ve heard of a lot of different analytic methods and concepts, but I have to say I have never heard of this. But then again, I’m not a trained economist, so I could have just missed out on this one in my education. Having taken a quick look, I now realize it’s basically a theory based on super cycles.

Kondratieff Long Wave Theory came from Nikolai Dmyitriyevich Kondratieff (1892 – 1938) who was involved in the early Soviet economic planning processes. You can learn more about him and his ideas here:

http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave

I’m going to have to read up on all this stuff. Until that’s done, I’m not going to venture a guess as where we might be in the cycle. I encourage anyone else who has some thoughts on the subject to leave a comment with them, though.

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6 people have left comments

Posted on September 18, 2008 at 9:23 am

K wrote :

we are in the winter part of the cycle. and it might continue until 2020 (yea i know it seems long)

Posted on September 19, 2008 at 11:12 am

ducati998 wrote :

John,

I’ve looked at the Kondratieff cycles, here are some basics.

http://leduc998.wordpress.com/?s=kondratieff

jog on
duc

Posted on September 20, 2008 at 9:33 am

Bill aka NO DooDahs! wrote :

Good debunking of K-waves here:
http://www.lewrockwell.com/rothbard/rothbard44.html

Posted on June 27, 2009 at 2:53 am

Edward Lewis wrote :

The US has a history of economic depressionary periods starting at 40 year intevals since 1893: 1893, 1929, 1973, 2008. These economic depressionary periods are caused by a cycle of industrial revolutions that happen at 80 year intervals ( about 1790, 1890, 1970). The industrial revolutions in turn are caused by a cycle of scientific revolutions in physics: 1506 Copernican, 1593 Galilean, 1664 Newtonian, 1745 Franklin (fluids theory), 1820 Faraday, 1905 Einstein, 1992 Lewis (plasmoid, cold fusion is a part of this). Industrial revolution economic depressionary periods are less severe than the ones that follow 40 years afterwards. They are called technological acceleration (productivity growth acceleration) depressions. This technological acceleration depressionary period starting now is similar to the earlier 1929 depression. It isn’t going to be like the 1970s industrial revolution and decline of old industries depression. There will be high productivity growth rates during this time, and continued financial crisis.

Posted on November 3, 2009 at 9:07 am

jeyzzy wrote :

your template displayed incorrectly in my browser(chrome)

Posted on November 3, 2009 at 9:31 am

John wrote :

Thanks for the heads-up. I’m actually working on a bit of a redesign which should solve any such issues. I know there are some little ones with Firefox as well.